Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Imminent Ramon Ortiz Implosion?

Stick and Ball Guy has some enlightening data concerning Twins pitcher Ramon Ortiz. He has had three great games thus far and appears to have gotten back on track. Yet there are some very strong indications that he has been lucky so far and is due for an implosion.

Here are the concerns:
  • First pitch strikes. Last year, Ortiz threw a first pitch strike 58%
    of the time. So far this year, just 50%. (League average 57%.)
  • Missing bats. Last year, hitters made contact 82% of the time they
    swung at a Ramon Ortiz offering. So far this year, they’ve made contact
    84% of the time. (League average 80%.)
  • Overall control. Last year, Ortiz threw 64% of his pitches for
    strikes. So far this year, he’s thrown 58% of his pitches for strikes.
  • He’s allowed a ton of fly balls (only 33.3% GB% so far), and he has yet to get punished with a HR.
  • Ortiz has always been hurt by home runs, and it is really luck that has kept those fly balls from becoming home runs.
Do not be surprised when the wheels start falling off.

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