Monday, November 02, 2009

Government Default

Gary North has written another article on government default of debt. As always, I recommend reading the whole article.

Here is the conclusion:

"There are two forms: mass (up to 50% per annum) and hyper (the sky's the limit).

Mass inflation seems more likely over the next decade. If the world's central banks can coordinate the expansion of money, thereby funding the national welfare states, the public will not be able to escape. They will pay the inflation tax.

The ways around this are limited to investing in real goods: commodities, small farms, used goods stores, small-town real estate. Not many people will see this in time. Of those who do, few will take action. These escape hatches are for people who are hedging against default. The average voter has no financial reserves. Of the 20% who do have reserves, 80% will be stuck in conventional investments. They will believe the Establishment's Keynesian line. "The government can fix it if you just hang on."

Inflation means the erosion of money. It means a hidden default on the political promises. Why hidden? Because the politicians will blame speculators. They will not blame the Federal Reserve for having bankrolled their promises.

Ultimately, it is either the great depression or the Zimbabwe option. Ludwig von Mises called this the crack-up boom. It means the destruction of money and the collapse of the division of labor. It would mean devastation.

I think central banks will at some point refuse to fund governments any longer. They will bail out the largest banks instead. Foreign politicians may force hyperinflation on their central banks, as agents of the government. But as long as the Federal Reserve System maintains its selective independence, it will not adopt hyperinflation as a policy. That would not be in the interest of the largest banks. It would also not be in the interest of central bankers. Their retirement promises would die."

-------------------------------------------
Buy and store gold abroad at BullionVault.

Get free shipping on your gold and silver purchase at Lear Capital.

No comments: